6.27.2008

VW in the plug in game

From Wired:
Volkswagen's been toying with hybrids for awhile and got electric-vehicle advocates in a lather over the diesel-electric Golf it unveiled a few months ago. Now the company's promising a plug-in hybrid by 2010 and the German government's written a big check to make it happen.

Click the title for more

10.22.2007

Peak Oil Past Us

And not in a good way, like it was never anything to worry about. Doubt still abounds, I'm sure but apparently, Mr. Hubbard was right. And Mr. DeFeyes.

10.15.2007

Closer to mass electric?

From CNET news blog, Think, the Norwegian electric car manufacturer signed a deal for batteries for their cars. Plans are to start mass producing in 2008 meaning it will be extraordinarily rare to see a car in the States any time soon I'm sure. But if Think's cars are a bit more workable (e.g. bigger, more normal looking) than others are offering, maybe we'll see some of them around. Click the title for the link.

9.28.2007

Ethanol, schmethanol

This from the Economist is a diatribe against traditional ethanol which has never been the greatest posterboy for alternative fuels. The important take away from this article is the same that I've seen over and over and have come to myself. What we have today is okay, at best, but what's really promising are the fuels and production methods of tomorrow. When will tomorrow come is the next question.

8.11.2007

India getting in on the action

This bodes well. Indian companies are starting to explore alternative fuel options for passenger and commercial vehicles. Now that demand for vehicles is increasing in India and other parts of Asia, starting with low emission vehicles that aren't dependent on petroleum can go a long way to protect the environment and reduce the need for oil. If the mindset starts with alt.fuel vehicles there won't be difficulty transitioning to alternatives, which has proven so difficult for Americans and others.

GM to begin testing Volt electric car by spring

From Yahoo. It looks like GM might actually be producing this vehicle instead of shelving it like so many others. I'd love to get my hands on a Volt for testing, which starts next spring. Short of that, hopefully I'll have the change in my pockets to buy one when they come available in 2010. I think GM can make a lot of money on these, especially if gas prices increase as people are predicting.

12.04.2006

On road to clean fuels, automakers cover some ground

From the CSM, more news about the latest alt.vehicles.

11.28.2006

Ed Begley, Jr. - It's electric!

11.26.2006

Nissan plans to sell electric cars in 3 yrs

This is the whole post from Reuters via Yahoo! News. Things are looking up at Nissan.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co. plans to develop and start selling subcompact electric cars powered by self-developed lithium-ion batteries in about three years, the Nihon Keizai (Nikkei) business daily reported on Sunday.
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Japan's number-two automaker also plans to develop and sell gas-electric hybrid cars by 2010 in an attempt to catch up with rivals Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. in the field of eco-friendly vehicles, Nikkei said.

In co-operation with its French partner Renault SA, Nissan will speed up the expansion of its line-up of diesel cars, that are in growing demand globally, Nikkei said.

Nissan will also strive to develop bioethanol cars with the help of Renault, Nikkei said, adding that the Japanese automaker would provide Renault with fuel cell and hybrid car technologies.

Company officials were not immediately available for comment.

8.22.2006

Chapter 7. CNG

“It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be.”

- Isaac Asimov



Chapter 1. Compressed Natural Gas

Compressed natural gas (CNG) is an odorless, colorless, gas that is composed of methane (CH4) and has been pressurized for use in transportation. For a long time, natural gas was considered a by-product of oil drilling and would be flared at the well, a practice still used in some countries. Around the mid-1950s, natural gas came into its own as a commodity and has become a greater component of the United States’ energy market ever since. The US has large quantities of natural gas on domestic lands and is therefore in a position to benefit from its use as an alternative fuel. The following will be a discussion of the general advantages and disadvantages of CNG, its emissions, its ability to support national security, sustainability factors, its economic impact, and future potential.

General Advantages

One of the best advantages of CNG is that the US has an abundant supply of natural gas located within its defined borders. Current reserve estimates total around 591.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas as dry gas, wet gases, and gas solids. One gasoline gallon equivalent (gge) is 126.67 cf of gas meaning there are over 4.7 trillion gallons of fuel available just from domestic sources . Not all of this gas will be used for transportation, however, as many newer electricity generation facilities use natural gas as well. But it does show that as a component of a general alternative fuel policy, it could provide years of transportation power.
Another interesting development that is very tantalizing is the Phill™ home CNG fueling system. The Phill device is twice the size of a breadbox and mounts to the wall of the consumer’s home, is connected to the house electrical and natural gas supply, and is used to refuel a CNG vehicle. This has to be one of the best developments in alternative fuel distribution, one of the major stumbling blocks to widespread usage. The machine eliminates the hurdle of availability by placing the refueling mechanism in the consumer’s home, a solution that people are much more likely to use than driving to the other side of town.
The machine isn’t perfect though; it has a very slow fueling rate of .42 gge per hour, necessitating overnight refills. Also, it adds an extra cost to owning and operating a CNG vehicle which already suffers from high incremental costs (electrical use is negligible, about $18 per year). It suffers from availability as well, being offered only in six states and three cities, as well as France. The concept is not diminished by these facts, however. That an alternative fuel takes advantage of existing networks of infrastructure to offer refueling in the home reminds one of the 1950s visions of the future.
Natural gas is also a mature industry. It thus benefits from a vast network of pipelines that enable easy and inexpensive transportation of the fuel to all parts of the nation. It is perhaps because of this that CNG has one of the widest available fueling networks, second only to propane. There are over 1,300 CNG fueling stations nationwide in 46 states according to the EPA and it is possible to plan a trip across the country using a natural gas vehicle (NGV), a feat not possible with most other alternative fuels.
Also, prices at the pump are generally much lower in gge compared to gasoline. The Alternative Fuels Price Report for September, 2005, prices CNG $0.65 lower than gasoline and $0.69 lower than diesel. Finally, CNG can replace both gasoline in light-duty vehicles and diesel in heavy-duty vehicles making it a more versatile fuel than ethanol or biodiesel and thus capable of displacing more petroleum.

General Disadvantages

There are disadvantages to using CNG as well, the most prominent being availability NGVs. Currently, there are only three models available to consumers in the US market, two pickups from GM, either dedicated or bi-fuel (CNG only or CNG and gasoline, respectively), and one sedan, the dedicated Honda Civic. These three vehicles didn’t even make the DOE’s www.fueleconomy.gov list of 2006 model year vehicles, an oversight that seems odd considering the source. Given the meager offerings of CNG vehicles, it is not surprising to find that there are only 130,000 vehicles currently driving the roads, only 4 hundredths of one percent of all vehicles.
Even if more vehicles were available, it is questionable how willing people would be to purchase them because incremental costs associated with the vehicles range from $2,500 to $6,000. Perusing Honda’s website garners the following information:
• The gasoline model of the Honda Civic starts at $14,560,
• The Hybrid Civic model starts at $21,850, and
• The Civic NG model starts at $21,760.
This shows the Civic NG being $7,200 more than the same model which uses gasoline, higher than EPA figures. Given this information, it is questionable how many compact car buyers would be willing to pay an $7,000 premium to purchase the natural gas option. It also seems likely that those people willing to pay the premium might opt for the hybrid Civic, which offers guaranteed ability to fuel your car at 180,000 stations nationwide with substantial increases in mileage and reductions in emissions.
Another disadvantage CNG suffers is infrastructure costs. The average cost to upgrade a fueling station is around $300,000 due to the need for thick walled storage tanks and pressurization equipment. Costs are lower for fueling systems that pump at lower speeds but those are only good for fleet vehicles that can take the time to refuel overnight. But this too increases costs for refueling. If a bus fleet uses slow-fill CNG fueling apparatuses, it needs to build more fueling lanes and purchase more machines to fuel the fleet in time for the next day’s business. This can increase costs over the use of fast-fill machines, which are really the only option for retail gas stations. Such high costs are likely to make retail station owners reluctant to upgrade, inhibiting the availability of CNG as an alternative fuel.
Grade for Advantage and Disadvantages: B-

Emissions

Life-cycle emission of CNG can be modeled using the GREET system, making for equal comparison with ethanol and a few other alternative fuels. Chapter 4 presents the findings for emissions of CNG in a comprehensive manner; therefore, this section will be a quick review. Please, use table 4.2 as a reference.
Compressed natural gas is known as the cleanest burning fuel for use in automobiles. Using the GREET model, CNG has less than 50 percent the emissions for all types of pollutants measured, save methane which shows 3.5 times the emissions level. As CNG is composed of 98 percent methane, it is not unusual that emissions of this gas would be higher considering efficiencies of internal combustion engines. Low efficiencies mean more unburned gases escape in the exhaust cycle. In this case, the unburned portion would be mostly methane.
Breaking down the fuel by type of emission, there is an 82.5 percent reduction in carbon dioxide and an 80 percent reduction in other green house gases (mostly hydrocarbons). This shows a large reduction in emission factors that contribute to global warming, making CNG a valuable fuel in this fight. There is also a 41 percent reduction in nitrous oxide and a 92 percent reduction in nitrogen oxides, both of which contribute to smog and ozone formation as well as respiratory problems.
Carbon monoxide is decreased by 54 percent and particulate matter is decreased by 90 percent. These figures show excellent potential for CNG use in EPA non-attainment areas and also for use in diesel engines (think transit) because of major reductions in “black smoke” bellowing from heavy-duty trucks. Finally, there is a 90 percent reduction in volatile organic compounds and a 95 percent reduction in sulfur oxides, both of which contribute to smog and health problems.
Given the low emissions inherent in the use of CNG and its relative availability, it is puzzling that the fuel hasn’t been promoted or used more often. With increased availability of machines like the Phill, it is likely that more consumers will begin to use CNG, which can greatly reduce pollution in urban areas.
Grade for Emissions: A-

National Security

CNG poses problems for national security. It is true that the US has large reserves of natural gas but those reserves only constitute 3 percent of world reserves, a small figure in the scheme of things. Also, the country’s demand for natural gas is greater than its ability to supply it. Already, the US is importing natural gas from Canada and Mexico at the rate of 4.2 Bcf per year and another 652 Mcf per year in liquid form from countries like Egypt, Algeria, and Trinidad. These countries are currently favorable to the US and will most likely remain that way. If demand starts to outstrip their ability to supply, however, the US may be importing another precious commodity from the Middle East, which holds around 40 percent of world reserves.
While CNG offers the ability to replace both gasoline and diesel fuel, US reserves would only last about 27.5 years at current consumption rates if all automotive transport fuels were changed to CNG tomorrow. This would give the nation time to invent and discover new ways of propelling our vehicles but it still show that it is a finite resource, one which would eventually lead to the same problems observed today. Of course, the entire US fleet won’t be converted to CNG tomorrow and won’t ever be. Also, only about one one-thousandth of consumption is attributable to transportation, meaning domestic production would have to increase dramatically to make a serious dent in petroleum consumption.
There is also the problem of availability. While 591 Tcf exist under the lands of the US, only about one eighth of that is technologically accessible. Advances in technology are certain but not necessarily to the extent that projected consumption demands will be met. This only heightens the likelihood of increased importation of natural gas, thus decreasing national security. Regardless, this fuel has the ability to displace a large volume of imported petroleum for a long period of time and its use should be promoted as a component of an overall alternative fuel policy because of this.
Grade for National Security: C

Sustainability

Unfortunately, CNG is not a sustainable fuel. It is a product of the same forces that created petroleum, except the source material was lower in the earth’s crust, which caused it to vaporize. Therefore, it is a finite resource that can, and perhaps will, be depleted in the distant future. Peak oil theorists suggest that natural gas production will also peak some 20-30 years after petroleum production peaks. If you agree with the early peak models that will be around 2030 to 2040, while more conservative models push it back to between 2050 and 2100. Either way, at some point, given current and projected consumption, natural gas will cease to be an option for transportation whereas a fuel like ethanol or biodiesel can be produced in perpetuity.
Grade for Sustainability: C-

Economic Impact

As stated in a previous section, natural gas is a mature industry having been around for over 50 years. The possibility of this fuel creating many new jobs is small, but it does currently employ many people. The Monthly Labor Review journal estimates a decrease of 29 percent in the crude oil and natural gas industry over course of this decade. Field services to oil and gas are expected to rise 7 percent and pipeline services are also expected to decline over the same period. In fact, oil and natural gas industries have seen, and are expected to see, some of the largest and most rapid declines in US industry employment over the current decade.
Industry profits are expected to rise, however, mostly due to rising prices for the commodity. While this will make some people wealthier, it will bite into the budget of most American consumers, making them less able to afford other purchases. Overall, because the natural gas industry is well established it is unlikely it will provide a boom or even a small increase in new jobs or increased economic prosperity.
Grade for Economic Impact: C

Future Potential

What is the future potential of CNG? It is still quite promising. There are not likely to be any major advances in technology as may be seen with ethanol or biodiesel but advances are likely that will make available greater reserves for consumption. The fuel’s ability to replace both major sources of automotive fuel is quite promising and its very low emissions mean it is an excellent prospect as a transition fuel until cleaner and more sustainable resources are developed. It is still hindered by being a finite resource and being proportionately scarce in the US, making it a short-term solution to the nation’s petroleum dilemma.
Grade for Future Potential: B-
Final Grade for CNG: C+/ B-

My Home Town

In the town I grew up in, Fulton, NY, talks abound for refitting the closed Miller beer plant (their 10-year tax abatement ended in the early '90s during recession and they bailed) to produce ethanol. Boing! Great Idea! Talk about the perfect fit, it's already geared for making alcohol, has rail attachments, is in the middle of corn country, and is in the middle of an economically depressed area. I see wins all around me.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether politicians do the seemingly intelligent thing and help make it happen or if it just remains talk. NY is one of the leaders in the alt.fuel push, however, so my hopes are high.

Governor Plans an Energy Shift for Illinois

Governor Plans an Energy Shift for Illinois - New York Times
Another telling article about alternative fuels. The first sentence of the second paragraph says it all. "Seeking a second term in November..." It is apparent that the states aren't waiting for the Feds to get it in gear and are instead taking it upon themselves to give the people what they want, or at least, what the states think is good for them.
As more and more states adopt alt.fuel policies above and beyond what "the market will bear," there is increased likelihood that alt.fuels will become a greater part of our fuel solution and lead us not in to temptation, but delivery us from oil.

7.27.2006

Who Killed the Electric Car?

Following up on two posts ago is this documentary from Sony Classics, Who Killed the Electric Car? Showing up alongside An Inconvenient Truth at Sundance, the movie showcases the death of GM's EV-1. Should be an interesting show if less terrifying than Truth. You can read an interview with the makers at Gristmill.

From Wikipedia:
"Many consumers and government officials questioned General Motors commitment to the EV1 program. Inadequate marketing and artificially constrained supply have led some to believe the EV1 program was intended to fail, and to prove that electric vehicles were not feasible. Also of concern was GM's insistence on repossessing and destroying all EV1s, rather than selling them at the termination of the program, and GM's ties with the oil industry. GM insiders later provided documentation of long waiting lists that went unfulfilled."

Who Killed the Electric Car?

Following up on two posts ago is this documentary from Sony Classics, Who Killed the Electric Car? Showing up alongside An Inconvenient Truth at Sundance, the movie showcases the death of GM's EV-1. Should be an interesting show if less terrifying than Truth. You can read an interview with the makers at Gristmill.

Chapter 6. Biodiesel

“The use of plant oil as fuel may seem insignificant today. But such products can in time become just as important as kerosene and the coal-tar-products of today.”

- Rudolf Diesel, 1912

Chapter 6. Biodiesel

Biodiesel is a petroleum diesel alternative made from a base of virgin or used vegetable oils or animal fats, blended with methanol and lye in a transesterification process. Using vegetable oil for automotive fuel is not new; Rudolf Diesel demonstrated his first working engine using peanut oil as the medium of combustion. Be that as it may, biodiesel is the new kid on the block in the world of modern alternative fuels. Only making the Department of Energy’s list in the last seven years, it has since become the fastest growing alternative fuel in terms of production and use and it is a promising fuel for the future of the United States.
Whether it is used in a blend with regular diesel, most commonly B20, 20 percent biodiesel and 80 percent petrol-diesel, or in pure form, B100, biodiesel has many advantages for the user and the nation as a whole. As with all things “alternative fuels,” disadvantages are inherent, not the least of which is competing with a 100 year old oil industry. This chapter will run biodiesel through the Fuel-o-Tron to assess its general advantages and disadvantages, its emissions, its ability to support national security, sustainability factors, its economic impact, and future potential.

General Advantages

Unlike ethanol, which needs specially modified vehicles for blends higher than 10 percent, biodiesel can be used in any percentage blend in any vehicle with a diesel engine assembled after 1992 without modification. This quality allows the fuel to be used “neat” as well as in blends from 1 percent to 99 percent. Of course, burning biodiesel at the 100 percent level, or B100, means there is no petroleum burned in the fuel cycle, making vehicles mostly independent from oil (considering life-cycle). Combine this with the amount of light and heavy-duty on-road diesel engines, some 5 million by 1997, transit and school buses, off-road diesel engines used for power generation, marine vessels, and rail engines and it is apparent biodiesel has the ability to displace a significant percentage of imported oil.
Along with its ready usability in engines, it also needs no changes to infrastructure; whether transportation, fueling, or storage. Fuel pump hoses are designed to withstand biodiesel’s solvent nature and it is safe to hold in common storage tanks. It can also be “splash blended” on site at a fueling station or it can be shipped pre-blended, and then pumped into a holding tank. This increases biodiesel’s usability because there is no special equipment needed and no extra costs involved to start using biodiesel, a hurdle many alternative fuels find difficult to pass.
Addressing biodiesel’s solvent nature, it could be considered a disadvantage by some, but for the purposes of this paper it won’t be. Because it cleans the containers it is put in, when a fuel provider begins offering the fuel to the public, it will clean out the deposits left behind by the petroleum diesel that was previously stored in the tanks. The same is true for a vehicle’s gas tank and fuel lines. A vehicle that has been running on petrol-diesel will have to change fuel filters a few times after starting biodiesel use. This shouldn’t be considered a negative, however, because the cleansing affect makes the engine run more efficiently, prolonging its life. This benefit is available even with low percentage blends.
Like ethanol’s higher octane content, biodiesel has higher cetane content than petrol-diesel. Cetane is a molecule that is easily combustible when compressed and that adds lubricity to a fuel. Biodiesel’s higher cetane content means that it burns more efficiently than regular diesel thus improving the performance and life-span of diesel engines. A specific use for this quality could be in ultra-low sulfur diesel (15 ppm) that is mandated for use in all diesel engines by 2007. Just as ethanol became a useful additive when lead was banned from gasoline, biodiesel would be able to maintain the lubricity in diesel fuel that is lost when sulfur is removed without adding any extra. It remains to be seen whether this will happen, but even a low percentage blend, such as B2-B5, would be sufficient to compensate for lost sulfur, is or can be available, and would also reduce emissions and petroleum use.
A final advantage of biodiesel is that it is safer to handle than other fuels. Biodiesel has a higher flash-point and lower volatility than diesel. A higher flash-point means it combusts at higher temperatures and lower volatility reduces evaporation, reducing fumes. This makes it safer for handling, especially in the case of a spill, because it reduces the chances for ignition and reduces health risks from inhaling fumes. The fuel is also safer for the environment, and thus humans; it biodegrades four times faster than petroleum diesel (and is more biodegradable than sugar) and is 10 times less toxic than table salt. This trait can be especially useful for marine applications but you still wouldn’t want to put it on your Wheaties.
Next, some disadvantages of biodiesel will be discussed.

General Disadvantages

Perhaps not a disadvantage, but a prominent hurdle biodiesel faces is its relative youth in the alternative fuels arena. As of 1996, there were only two commercial producers of biodiesel in the country and a number of homebrew cooperatives. Compare this to other fuels like ethanol, which started major production in the 1970s or electricity, which had mandated use in California as of 1992. The newness factor plays out in two major ways. First, there is less research and data available about biodiesel than other fuels. While seven years may seem like a long time, remember that for research to be thorough every model engine, light and heavy-duty, generator, etc., must be tested. Thus, there hasn’t been time to observe long-term effects on the fuel systems of vehicles and the best processes and feedstock for production are still being debated and/or discovered. This translates into reluctance by vehicle and motor manufactures to promote biodiesel use in their products.
In fact, most auto manufacturers will only warrantee their engines for use with blends up to B20, and some will only allow the use of B5. Here is an example from US manufacturers:
Biodiesel fuels may be produced from a wide variety of sources and maybe used in all DDC engines provided they are derived from soy methyl ester and rape methyl ester (canola) and are blended to a maximum of 20% by volume in diesel fuel. The resulting blend must meet DDC specified fuel properties. These blends have not been fully evaluated relative to diesel fuel system durability or engine oil effects.
Blends higher than B20 void the warrantee, making fuel retailers less likely to carry them. This is why more research is needed. Manufacturers were equally reluctant with ethanol, even in low percentage blends like gasohol, when it was being introduced and today, after much research has been done, they are all fully behind it and provide flexible fuel vehicles that can use high percentage blends. With more research, biodiesel could receive the same backing which could greatly increase its use.
The second factor is cost. The youth of the industry makes the costs of production high because economies of scale and advances in technology have not developed to the point of noticeable decreases in cost at the pump. As of September, 2005, a gallon of B20 cost about $0.10 more than petrol-diesel and a gallon of B100 was $0.60 more. Lower blends of B2-B5 were priced equally but if the fuel is going to provide the advantages desired, higher blends will need to be used. People who are environmentally conscious or are “Made in America” backers would most likely pay the extra cost for the B20 blend. This would increase petroleum displacement greatly if all diesel fuel were B20 but to maximize alternative fuel benefits, offering B100 (as an option, not a replacement) would be best. Most consumers, however conscious they may be, would still balk at paying an extra $0.60 per gallon to fuel their car.
Like all alternative fuels, even if consumers were willing to pay the premium to use B100 or a blend, availability is a problem. The Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy office of the Department of Energy lists 334 biodiesel retail sites but the National Biodiesel Board website shows slightly more than this in just the six most densely populated states (in terms of biodiesel sites) clustered around Illinois. If consumers can’t purchase the fuel, they aren’t going to use it but as the number of production plants is going to double in the next couple years, availability should increase.
But how much petroleum can be displaced, i.e. not imported, by switching to biodiesel from petrol-diesel? Currently, there are a great deal of tractor-trailers and buses operating on the roads. Compared to light-duty passenger vehicles, however, they are only a small percentage of total vehicles and fuel consumption. In the year 2003, there were over 228 million passenger vehicles in the US compared to around 8.7 million heavy-duty vehicles. There are many heavy-duty vehicles that use gasoline, like the delivery trucks that operate in a city, but according to the NBB only one third of 1 percent of light duty vehicles operate on diesel. In fact, only 10 models are offered in the 2006 model year, mostly from Volkswagen. There are many diesel pick-ups and SUVs but they too are a relatively small portion of the total.
Fuel consumption is a different story with around 132 billion gallons of gasoline consumed and 38.5 billion gallons of diesel. Here, diesel is a higher percentage of the total but if biodiesel were used in low percentage blends, it ability to displace total petroleum usage would be relatively low.
Also, like ethanol, biodiesel produces less power per gallon compared to its petroleum alternative. One gallon of petrol-diesel contains 130,000 btu of energy compared to 120,000 btu for biodiesel. This translates to about 5 percent less engine power (torque) and about 15 percent increase in fuel consumption when using B100. A B20 blend, however, shows a proportional change in these figures with fuel use increasing 2-3 percent and engine power roughly equal to petrol-diesel. This factor must be taken into consideration when calculating costs of the fuel and when considering it as a replacement fuel as more will be needed to displace a quantity of diesel.
A final disadvantage that is specific to biodiesel is that it has lower resistance to cold weather than other fuels. Biodiesel blends, like B20, freeze at temperatures 2 to 3 degrees higher than petrol diesel which begins to cloud at 15° F. B100, however, starts to freeze at temperatures of 25° F, making it unsuitable for use in winter months in most of the country without a preheating mechanism. Blending the fuels together does increase usability in the winter and B20 has been used at temperatures of -25° F without difficulties.
Grade for Advantages and Disadvantages: B-

Emissions

Unfortunately, the GREET Model that was used to assess ethanol’s life-cycle emissions hasn’t yet been developed to include biodiesel. This hampers direct comparisons between all alternative fuels considered in this paper because base conditions are guaranteed to be different between studies. There are, however, general trends in the literature that point to all emissions for biodiesel being lower except for nitrous oxides, which are roughly 20 percent higher for B100
In 1998 the National Renewable Energy Laboratories conducted a study for the Departments of Agriculture and Energy and used the TEAM™ model for life-cycle analysis of biodiesel. The study found a significant reduction in CO2, a major contributor to global warming. Pure biodiesel showed a 78.5 percent life-cycle reduction in CO2 emissions with B20 offering a 15.7 percent reduction. Remember, any blend of biodiesel will have higher emissions levels because of the inclusion of petrol-diesel. There was also observed a modest reduction in methane emission (this most likely means very low as another study sited equal emissions) which is also a prime contributor to global warming.
B100 also reduces other emissions that are targeted under the EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Carbon monoxide (CO) emission drops 35 percent overall and drops 46 percent in tailpipe only emissions. Total particulate matter (PM) drops 38 percent over the life-cycle and 62 percent for matter 10 microns and under which is specifically targeted by the EPA. Recent studies have connected PM emissions with global warming and it also contributes to smog in urban centers, making biodiesel use doubly important for this emission. In an EPA study it was shown that both PM and CO show proportional reductions in tailpipe emissions when blended with petrol-diesel. Finally, sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions are decreased by 8 percent over the life-cycle but biodiesel actually contributes nothing to these emissions, having none from the tailpipe. SOx emissions come from other sources such as the fuel and fertilizer used during the agricultural process and from the electricity used to operate the biodiesel production facility.
The NREL study shows that nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions are higher on a life-cycle basis for B100. This is not news; NOx is sited in every study and FAQ sheet available as being higher for biodiesel, usually about 35 percent higher than regular diesel. NOx contributes to smog formation and respiratory problems like asthma. With the large amount of diesel engines driving through, in, and around city centers, higher emissions of this gas can be detrimental. The effects can be mitigated by blending. B20 shows only a 9 percent increase but then there is a trade-off of increased emissions of other pollutants. Reasearch into the means of overcoming NOx increases is ongoing and will most likely produce results in the next few years. Ideas being considered are cetane improving additives, diesel catalytic converters, and feedstock manipulation.
Finally, total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions, including methane, benzene, formaldehyde, and non-methane hydrocarbons, are also higher for B100. The NREL study sites a 35 percent life-cycle increase over petrol-diesel. THCs contribute to ground level ozone formation, health problems, and smog. Tailpipe emissions, however, are 35 percent lower. The discrepancy is likely due to large emissions during the soybean crushing phase which account for half the total. There is no comparably high factor for petrol-diesel production.
Grade for Emissions: B

National Security

National security is based on reducing US dependence on foreign sources of oil, especially from volatile regions. In order for an alternative fuel to be effective at increasing our national security by decreasing our energy dependence, it will have to fit into the established networks that keep our transportation system running. Biodiesel has the ability to contribute significantly to national security because it requires little to no infrastructure improvement and can be produced from start to finish on domestic soil.
Perhaps more so than any other alternative fuel, biodiesel can fit into the existing network of gasoline/diesel transport and distribution because there is no need to modify existing infrastructure; it is just a matter of putting in the tank and pumping it out. It isn’t quite that simple, however, because before it can be put in a tank, it has to be made. Currently, very little biodiesel is produced compared to the amount of diesel that is consumed. In 2005, production is expected to meet 25 million gallons which is six ten-thousandths of total consumption (based on the above figure of 39 billion gallons).
Clearly, it isn’t a significant contribution to reducing petroleum use but a report by the NBB states that government fleet vehicles operating on B20 blends have much greater potential to displace petroleum, the focus of EPAct regulations, than other light-duty vehicle use. Table 6.1 is a reproduction of the NBB’s work and is included here because of its clarity on this subject.
The table shows that B20 has greater potential to displace petroleum than light-duty vehicles that operate on alternative fuels 85 percent of the time. Of course, most non-dedicated vehicles in government fleets don’t use their particular alternative fuel nearly as often as 85 percent but this is a measure of potential, not what’s so. The reason that biodiesel has the greater potential to displace petroleum even though it is used in a lower percentage blend is based on a combination of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and miles per gallon. VMT tends to be two to three times greater for vehicles that operate diesel engines and those vehicle’s average mileage is between half and one-sixth that of the light duty passenger vehicles. The two in combination show roughly 1.5 to 5.5 times more petroleum displaced for medium and heavy-duty trucks and transit busses. Multiplying these results to cover all vehicles in the nation means a large portion of petroleum could be displaced by B20 fuel, on the order of 7 to 8 billion gallons a year (based on the above figure of 39 billion gallons of diesel consumed).

Table 6.1
Estimated Petroleum Displacement from Alternative Fuel Use
Vehicle / Fleet Type VMTs MPG Fuel %petrol Total(g)
Use Displaced Displaced
Light duty Passenger
E85, CNG, Propane 8000 24 334 85 283
Light duty Truck B20 16400 16 1025 20 205
Medium Duty Truck B20 16400 8 2050 20 410
Heavy Duty Truck B20 16400 6 2734 20 547
School Bus B20 8000 8 1000 20 200
Transit Bus B20 33200 4 8300 20 1660

Source: National Biodiesel Board, B20 Vehicles: EPAct. Online. Available: http://www.biodiesel.org /resources/reportsdatabase/reports/gen/19980701_gen-055.pdf. Accessed: December 3, 2005.

Thus, biodiesel has great potential to provide for national security. As time passes and more research is conducted, automobile manufacturers will most likely accept higher percentage blends of fuel for use with their vehicles, adding to the fuel’s potential to displace petroleum. For now, however, only a miniscule fraction of petroleum is being displaced by biodiesel. This is likely to change significantly by the end of the decade. More and more biodiesel production facilities are coming on line every year and the most recent Energy Policy Act, signed in June 2005, has provisions that promote the use of biodiesel and provide tax credits for manufacturers and distributors. The provisions call for an engine testing program to be conducted by the EPA, testing of biodiesel for electricity generation at universities, and exemption from excise taxes for vendors and a income tax credit for producers.
Grade for National Security: C

Sustainability

Biodiesel has an excellent sustainability factor when comparing fossil fuel production inputs. Every unit of fossil fuel energy used in the production of biodiesel creates 3.2 units of usable energy. This is a life-cycle analysis so it includes the fuel used to grow the feedstock (usually soybeans in the US) as well as the fossil fuels used in fertilizer and the electricity that runs the production plant. Thus, “the biodiesel life cycle produces more than three times as much energy in its final fuel product as it uses in fossil energy.” This is excellent news both in terms of sustainability and national security as a small amount of fossil fuels can create a larger amount of green energy that can be used in transportation and electricity generation. In comparison, ethanol has an average net energy balance of about 1.14 and petroleum diesel has a negative net energy balance of about .83 (this is a ratio with a value of 1 being one unit in = one unit out).
A further study will show that biodiesel, when taking into consideration all energy inputs, has a negative net balance of .80, which is very similar to petrol-diesel. This figure, however, takes into consideration the solar energy used in photosynthesis, an energy input that doesn’t seem like it should be included as it isn’t being generated by human technological means. Solar energy is considered in petrol-diesel production as well, but for petroleum, the energy rate is a geologic scale and for soybean production it is yearly. Also, biodiesel production is likely to become more efficient as economies of scale are reached and production processes and technologies are fine tuned. Petrol-diesel, however, is likely to become less efficient as energy costs of transporting oil to the US are likely to increase and domestic drilling becomes less efficient due to depletion.
Thus, biodiesel is very energy efficient in terms of fossil fuel inputs to total energy output. As with ethanol, however, the same question must be asked of biodiesel, “Can enough feedstock be produced to meet energy demands?” In the case of ethanol, all the land outside of urban centers would have needed to be converted to corn production to meet demand. This amount could be lower once cellulosic ethanol is perfected but for now, it is an impossibility. The story for soybean production is the same but worse.
In “A Life Cycle Comparison of Alternative Automobile Fuels,” Heather MacLean, et. al., describe a scenario for short-term production of soy based biodiesel and long-term, sustainable production (all inputs are renewables). Based on production of 36 bushels per acre per year and a fuel yield of 1.4 gallons per bushel, MacLean estimates that short-term production using fossil fuel inputs would require 1.5 billion acres to replace all diesel fuel. For sustainable production, the figure rises to 2.6 billion acres. To keep things in context, the US only has 1.9 billion acres of surface land, and another 4 billion acres or so that is underwater. Therefore, for sustainable production, the US would have to become share croppers to the Canadian and Mexican governments.
That is a bit of tongue in cheek humor but it does demonstrate current technical limitations on the ability of biodiesel to completely replace diesel fuels. Some of this can be mitigated by using feedstock that is not commonly used in the US, namely rapeseed oil, which has about 2 times the oil production of a similar quantity of soybeans. In either case, it is obvious that more than one solution to the problem of petroleum use needs to be considered if the US is going to increase national security and promote sustainability.
Grade for Sustainability: C-

Economic Impact

In the mid-1990s, Jian Ma, James Scott, and Thomas Johnson conducted an economic impact analysis of building and operating a 5 million gallon capacity soy biodiesel plant in northwestern Missouri. The findings of the study were significant. There was an expected increase of 81 jobs directly related to the plant with an additional 162 jobs resulting from increased economic activity in the neighboring area. There would be an increase of $50 million in commercial and industrial sales and area income would raise $14 million per year. The construction phase of the plant would also increase spending and jobs in the area for two to three years, but this was not quantified. Finally, government revenues could be expected to raise 3.5 percent throughout the time interval of the study, 1997-2006, to $12 million annually.
Other impacts of building the plant include an increase in population of 500 people as employees move into the area. It would also create a slight decrease in unemployment levels, because the area has a relatively high level of in-commuting, and would increase property values and retail sales. On the negative side, county government expenditures are expected to increase faster than new revenues causing deficit spending if not countered by other measures such as increasing taxes.
These projections are based on a production facility of about 5 million gallons in size. Modern biodiesel plants are being built at the 30 million gallon size and could be expected to have a greater impact on the local economy, though not proportionately as capital would maximize labor production. There is a caveat that goes with this information as well, “Not all locations are created equal.”
Northwest Missouri has many accommodations that make building a biodiesel plant in the area economically feasible. The study sites plentiful ground, rail, and water connections, proximity to soybean agricultural production and livestock yards for the soymeal byproduct, and a history of public-private partnership to promote the economy of the region. Other areas of the country that don’t have these particular assets may find building a biodiesel plant unfeasible or not as economically enriching. Higher costs of transportation, difficulty in securing cooperation, and lack of markets for byproducts could all increase costs associated with production that would supersede the ability to make profits and thus improve an areas economy.
Another study by D.L. Van Dyne, et. al., based in another Missouri county finds similar results to the Ma, et. al., study. One result this study finds is that for a small size production facility, about 500,000 gallon capacity, net job creation is only one employee. The study states, “New jobs created through the operation of the biodiesel plant are expected to be partially offset by a decrease in jobs in the fuel, high protein meal and the grain handling industries within the county.” Larger scale facilities would have a higher net impact; a 6.5 million gallon plant would produce 13 net jobs (and 112 for the construction phase) and a 15 million gallon plant would create 31 jobs (with 281 in the construction phase).
Most plants currently being built are slated to produce upwards of 30 million gallons of biodiesel because demand for the product is much higher in 2005 than in the mid-1990s. A 30 million gallon plant would increase net employment even more and have greater impact on the local economy. Thus, overall, the economic impact of biodiesel is likely to be excellent.
Grade for Economic Impact: B+

Future Potential

Future potential of this alternative fuel is great, mostly because there isn’t much actual (kinetic) happening but also because of government incentives and increased visibility. The National Biodiesel Board estimates a doubling of production facilities in the next few years. Tax incentives will keep the cost of biodiesel competitive with petrol-diesel, especially in blends which show promise in displacing oil usage. High profile celebrities like Willie Nelson and Emmylou Harris are promoting the fuel, using it to power their tour busses. Finally, increased research as the industry matures will lead to decreased costs and increased efficiencies which will make the fuel even more viable.
Grade for Future Potential: B+
Final Grade for Biodiesel: B-

0-60 in 4 Seconds...It's Electric!

What goes 0-60 in 4 seconds, tops out at 135 mph, and costs $0.01 per gallon to drive? Why, it's Tesla Motor's new, all electric sportscar! Leveraging existing technologies and distributors, the Tesla Roadster uses parts suppliers from around the world and lithium-ion batteries from laptop manufacturers to create the first electric car that could wow the jaded consumer crowd. Not cheap, but certainly stylish, the car can be plugged in overnight, takes a charge in a few hours, and has a range of 250 miles, plenty to pick up the groceries after the daily commute.

The company's founder plans to keep costs low by allowing the big computer companies to do the R&D necessary to improve battery life. All he has to do is plug them in, link them up, and make sure they're safe. Definitely a great idea and if the price tag can get a bit lower (80K, yikes!) and more models are offered, they might just be able to bypass Detroit altogether.